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Macron out by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2026 as the leading outcome, at a 4% probability across 5 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $2.17M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2026 (4%)
- Volume
- $2.17M
- Liquidity
- $98.80K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- October 16, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.