Knoww
Meta's Watermelon released on...?
The Field
5 of 25§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see No release by October 31 as the leading outcome, at a 25% probability across 32 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $36.24K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No release by October 31 (25%)
- Volume
- $36.24K
- Liquidity
- $13.51K
- Resolution date
- October 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 32
- Last updated
- October 8, 2026
Rules and resolution
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.