Knoww
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
The Field
5 of 10§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see No release by October 31 as the leading outcome, at a 70% probability across 30 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 16 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $299.95K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No release by October 31 (70%)
- Volume
- $299.95K
- Liquidity
- $40.33K
- Resolution date
- November 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 30
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.