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Next Government of Canada
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Liberal Minority was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $19.22M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Liberal Minority (100%)
- Volume
- $19.22M
- Resolution date
- April 28, 2025
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- May 21, 2025
Rules and resolution
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition that forms after the next Canadian Parliament after the election. The government will be considered formed once the legislative process for forming a government is completed and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. If the next Canadian Government after the election is not announced by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Canadian government.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.