Knoww
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 86% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $316.21K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (86%)
- Volume
- $316.21K
- Liquidity
- $23.71K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 11, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.