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Portugal Presidential Election
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. António José Seguro (IND) was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $136.47M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- António José Seguro (IND) (100%)
- Volume
- $136.47M
- Resolution date
- January 25, 2026
- Outcomes
- 47
- Last updated
- February 10, 2026
Rules and resolution
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.