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Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 15% probability across 2 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $13.99K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (15%)
- Volume
- $13.99K
- Liquidity
- $11.05K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify. "Marib Governorate" refers to the entirety of Marib Governorate, Yemen, as defined by its official administrative boundaries. "Enter" means that the Saudi troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Marib Governorate, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Saudi troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Saudi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Saudi troop entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia, including the Saudi Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.