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SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 32% probability across 3 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $1.06M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (32%)
- Volume
- $1.06M
- Liquidity
- $35.46K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 3
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.