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Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see James Talarico (D) as the leading outcome, at a 86% probability across 13 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $34.41K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 3, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- James Talarico (D) (86%)
- Volume
- $34.41K
- Liquidity
- $57.14K
- Resolution date
- November 3, 2026
- Outcomes
- 13
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.