Knoww
US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. June 15 was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $21.39M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- June 15 (100%)
- Volume
- $21.39M
- Resolution date
- June 16, 2026
- Outcomes
- 4
- Last updated
- August 13, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.