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U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Yes was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $30.19M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Yes (100%)
- Volume
- $30.19M
- Resolution date
- January 31, 2026
- Last updated
- August 1, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.