Knoww
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Yes was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $53.50M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Yes (100%)
- Volume
- $53.50M
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2024
- Last updated
- March 28, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S government shut down occurs between August 30, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The market will resolve to “Yes” if the acting President fails to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by the applicable deadline(s), even if no government shutdown is explicitly announced. For this market to resolve to "Yes" any shutdown will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.