Markets/Politics/US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$419.33KVolNov 14 mkts15 days left1 open · 3 closed
§Candidates1 total

§ Market context

About this market

Traders currently see October 31 as the leading outcome, at a 5% probability across 4 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $419.33K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

Status
Live trading
Leading outcome
October 31 (5%)
Volume
$419.33K
Liquidity
$11.63K
Resolution date
November 1, 2026
Outcomes
4
Last updated
October 17, 2026

Rules and resolution

On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.

Resolution source: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/

Data source and freshness

Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.

Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.