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US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. February 6 was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $23.38M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- February 6 (100%)
- Volume
- $23.38M
- Resolution date
- February 13, 2026
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- June 18, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Official diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, meetings through a third-party relaying messages (not including translators), or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present and interacting with each other will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.