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VMA Video of the Year 2026
The Field
5 of 6§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) as the leading outcome, at a 52% probability across 33 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $39.49K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by September 28, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) (52%)
- Volume
- $39.49K
- Liquidity
- $24.69K
- Resolution date
- September 28, 2026
- Outcomes
- 33
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.