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What will Melania say during AI talk on January 16?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. President Trump was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of <1%. The market traded approximately $31.14M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- President Trump (<1%)
- Volume
- $31.14M
- Resolution date
- January 16, 2026
- Outcomes
- 18
- Last updated
- January 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
Melania Trump is scheduled to deliver an address at "Zoom Ahead: AI for Tomorrow's Leaders" on January 16, 2026, 12PM ET (see https://x.com/melaniajtrump/status/2011809351917351037). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Melania Trump says the listed term during her appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "Zoom Ahead: AI for Tomorrow's Leaders" on January 16, 2026, 12PM ET. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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