Knoww
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
The Field
3§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see No release by November 1 as the leading outcome, at a 98% probability across 11 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $317.83K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No release by November 1 (98%)
- Volume
- $317.83K
- Liquidity
- $14.00K
- Resolution date
- November 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 11
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.