Knoww
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
The Field
5 of 6§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see 1 as the leading outcome, at a 75% probability across 6 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $3.48M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by March 2, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- 1 (75%)
- Volume
- $3.48M
- Liquidity
- $261.08K
- Resolution date
- March 2, 2027
- Outcomes
- 6
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.