Knoww
Which coalition will form the next German government?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. CDU/CSU & SPD was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $22.84M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- CDU/CSU & SPD (100%)
- Volume
- $22.84M
- Resolution date
- February 23, 2025
- Outcomes
- 9
- Last updated
- May 8, 2025
Rules and resolution
The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.