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Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
The Field
5 of 12§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Somaliland as the leading outcome, at a 12% probability across 12 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $1.80M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Somaliland (12%)
- Volume
- $1.80M
- Liquidity
- $209.01K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 12
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.