Markets/Culture/Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

$2.50MVolFeb 127 mkts3 months left4 open · 8 closedNeg Risk

The Field

4

§ Market context

About this market

Traders currently see Avengers: Doomsday as the leading outcome, at a 54% probability across 27 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $2.50M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by February 1, 2027.

Status
Live trading
Leading outcome
Avengers: Doomsday (54%)
Volume
$2.50M
Liquidity
$113.16K
Resolution date
February 1, 2027
Outcomes
27
Last updated
October 24, 2026

Rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026

Data source and freshness

Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.

Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.