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Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
The Field
5 of 71§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Phil Murphy as the leading outcome, at a 48% probability across 72 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 9 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.22M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Phil Murphy (48%)
- Volume
- $1.22M
- Liquidity
- $830.51K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 72
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.