Knoww
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
The Field
5 of 16§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Kristi Noem as the leading outcome, at a 33% probability across 21 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 7 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.44M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Kristi Noem (33%)
- Volume
- $1.44M
- Liquidity
- $111.69K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 21
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.