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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
The Field
5 of 28§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Stefan Brodie as the leading outcome, at a 20% probability across 28 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 3 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $532.75K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Stefan Brodie (20%)
- Volume
- $532.75K
- Liquidity
- $329.90K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 28
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.