Knoww
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
The Field
4§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate as the leading outcome, at a 69% probability across 4 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 3 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $193.13K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 4, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (69%)
- Volume
- $193.13K
- Liquidity
- $121.76K
- Resolution date
- November 4, 2026
- Outcomes
- 4
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.