Knoww
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 93% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $475.78K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (93%)
- Volume
- $475.78K
- Liquidity
- $177.67K
- Resolution date
- July 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 11, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.