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Will Israel annex any territory by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2026 as the leading outcome, at a 5% probability across 3 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 3 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $536.07K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2026 (5%)
- Volume
- $536.07K
- Liquidity
- $21.41K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 3
- Last updated
- October 16, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.