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Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 11% probability across 5 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $777.14K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (11%)
- Volume
- $777.14K
- Liquidity
- $15.81K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.