Knoww
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 94% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $1.78M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 4, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (94%)
- Volume
- $1.78M
- Liquidity
- $42.00K
- Resolution date
- January 4, 2027
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.