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Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 11% probability across 2 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $487.10K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (11%)
- Volume
- $487.10K
- Liquidity
- $11.08K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- October 16, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.