Knoww
Will Russia invade another country by...?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 22% probability across 2 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $634.09K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2027 (22%)
- Volume
- $634.09K
- Liquidity
- $76.38K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2028
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.