Knoww
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see June 30, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 41% probability across 6 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 3 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $4.39M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- June 30, 2027 (41%)
- Volume
- $4.39M
- Liquidity
- $113.07K
- Resolution date
- July 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 6
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.