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Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2026 as the leading outcome, at a 8% probability across 4 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $562.52K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2026 (8%)
- Volume
- $562.52K
- Liquidity
- $1.56K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 4
- Last updated
- October 18, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.