Knoww
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. No was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $18.14M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- No (100%)
- Volume
- $18.14M
- Resolution date
- June 30, 2025
- Last updated
- July 4, 2025
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.