Knoww
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 98% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $1.44M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (98%)
- Volume
- $1.44M
- Liquidity
- $111.30K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 8, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.