Knoww
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 3% probability across 4 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $14.21M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (3%)
- Volume
- $14.21M
- Liquidity
- $79.20K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 4
- Last updated
- October 16, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.