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Will Trump be impeached by...?
The Field
3§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 63% probability across 3 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 6 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.05M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2027 (63%)
- Volume
- $1.05M
- Liquidity
- $103.43K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2028
- Outcomes
- 3
- Last updated
- October 18, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.