Knoww
Will Trump release Epstein files by...?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. December 31 was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $98.30M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- December 31 (100%)
- Volume
- $98.30M
- Outcomes
- 8
- Last updated
- December 25, 2025
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein. The following will qualify: -Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. -Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) The following will not qualify: -Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content. -Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET). -Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe. -Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch. -Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests. -Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court. -Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible. FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.