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Will Trump visit China by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Trading on this market has ended, but settlement is still pending. May 15 finished as the leading outcome at a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $49.56M in total volume.
- Status
- Trading closed
- Final leading outcome
- May 15 (100%)
- Volume
- $49.56M
- Resolution date
- March 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 9
- Last updated
- August 13, 2026
Rules and resolution
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading has ended, so the figures above reflect the final trading state while settlement remains pending. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.