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Will Venezuela become 51st state?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 98% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $398.42K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (98%)
- Volume
- $398.42K
- Liquidity
- $63.75K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.