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Anthropic lab leak by...?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see June 30, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 7% probability across 2 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 4 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $97.46K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- June 30, 2027 (7%)
- Volume
- $97.46K
- Liquidity
- $201.28K
- Resolution date
- July 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.