Knoww
Next Claude Opus released on...?
The Field
5 of 10§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see September 22 as the leading outcome, at a 77% probability across 16 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 21 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $293.71K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by September 23, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- September 22 (77%)
- Volume
- $293.71K
- Liquidity
- $97.03K
- Resolution date
- September 23, 2026
- Outcomes
- 16
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.