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Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
The Field
5 of 13§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see No Next Chancellor before 2028 as the leading outcome, at a 64% probability across 66 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $124.12K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2030.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No Next Chancellor before 2028 (64%)
- Volume
- $124.12K
- Liquidity
- $318.48K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2030
- Outcomes
- 66
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.