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Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
The Field
5 of 19§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see No Next Minister by Feb 28 as the leading outcome, at a 38% probability across 34 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $111.69K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by March 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No Next Minister by Feb 28 (38%)
- Volume
- $111.69K
- Liquidity
- $489.12K
- Resolution date
- March 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 34
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.