Knoww
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2025
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. María Corina Machado was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $21.46M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- María Corina Machado (100%)
- Volume
- $21.46M
- Resolution date
- October 10, 2025
- Outcomes
- 35
- Last updated
- June 14, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, Elon Musk, Pope Leo XIII, or Yulia Navalnaya are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them, in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners, and the prize is awarded jointly to a listed individual and a listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners, and all recipients are of the same type (e.g. all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.