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Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Yes was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $17.13M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Yes (100%)
- Volume
- $17.13M
- Resolution date
- May 9, 2025
- Last updated
- May 11, 2025
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Indian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Indian embassies or consulates, between May 4 and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, a Pakistani airstrike on a site in India or a Pakistani missile landing on Indian territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Pakistani government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.