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Richest person on December 31, 2026?
The Field
5 of 11§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Elon Musk as the leading outcome, at a 98% probability across 37 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $1.95M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 3, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Elon Musk (98%)
- Volume
- $1.95M
- Liquidity
- $221.63K
- Resolution date
- January 3, 2027
- Outcomes
- 37
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Resolution source: https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.