Knoww
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 99% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $1.26M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (99%)
- Volume
- $1.26M
- Liquidity
- $59.02K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Resolution source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.