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US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Trading on this market has ended, but settlement is still pending. February 28 finished as the leading outcome at a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $19.81M in total volume.
- Status
- Trading closed
- Final leading outcome
- February 28 (100%)
- Volume
- $19.81M
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 29
- Last updated
- May 6, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading has ended, so the figures above reflect the final trading state while settlement remains pending. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.