Knoww
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 97% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $476.02K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by October 20, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (97%)
- Volume
- $476.02K
- Liquidity
- $29.80K
- Resolution date
- October 20, 2026
- Last updated
- October 25, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.